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Gold holds near $4,158 as fading October hike bets meet a strong dollar

What moved overnight

Gold edged higher in overnight trading, up 0.4% to $4,158 per ounce after settling Friday around $4,144. The move followed Friday's soft September jobs report: only 29,000 jobs added against roughly 90,000 expected, with July and August revised down by a combined 60,000 and unemployment ticking up to 4.2%. That crushed October rate-hike odds from near 70% to about 22% on CME FedWatch, and December is still seen as the likely next move at around 87%.

The catch is the dollar. DXY pushed 0.5% higher to 102.42, near an 18-month high, as French fiscal worries weighed on the euro. The 10-year Treasury yield held around 5.28%, off last week's 24-year high of 5.344%. Oil stayed elevated near $102 Brent after Houthi strikes on Saudi Aramco sites, partly offset by G7 nations releasing strategic stocks.

Levels I'm watching

$4,144Friday's spot settle, the short-term pivot price needs to hold
$4,100key support per Saxo Bank; a clean break below opens a deeper retracement
$4,190overnight futures high area, the first upside hurdle
$4,230Saxo Bank's initial resistance; above it, the path toward recent highs reopens

Today's calendar

10:00 AM ET: ISM Services PMI (September), plus S&P Global US Services PMI (final). Expected around 55.7 versus 55.4 in August. This is the day's main release.

Fed speakers: none scheduled today. Tuesday brings Bowman, Logan, and Williams. FOMC minutes from the September meeting drop Wednesday, and the next rate decision is October 28.

The read

Gold is caught in a tug of war. The soft jobs data bought relief from October hike bets, but the firm dollar and elevated yields are capping the bounce. With the data calendar light and ISM Services the only real catalyst today, expect chop between $4,100 and $4,190 unless the PMI surprises. I'm not chasing either side into the number.

Not financial advice. Educational commentary only. You make your own trading decisions.