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Gold steadies near $4,287 after a bruising week as yields top 5.2%

What moved overnight

Gold closed out Friday near $4,287, up about 0.2% on the day, in what looked like a modest bounce after a rough week. The metal still lost roughly 2% for the week, trading between a high of $4,387.51 and a low of $4,244.63, as the market kept repricing for a hawkish Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.225% during the week, its highest since 2007, and the 30-year came close to 5.5%, its highest since 2004. The dollar index pushed above 101, an eight-week high, after the Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 and Chair Warsh said inflation had run too hot for too long.

There was some relief for gold buyers late in the week. Brent crude slipped toward $105 on a report that Washington and Tehran are weighing a phased agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the dollar and yields backed off their highs on Friday. Central bank demand stays strong underneath it all: central banks bought a record 289 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 62% from a year earlier. On the trade front, the US-China tariff truce was extended only two months, to January 10, with no tariff cuts.

Levels I'm watching

$4,300 to $4,311broken support now acting as resistance
$4,287Friday's spot close, parked under $4,300
$4,244 to $4,252the demand shelf, this week's low
$4,387.51the week's high, the ceiling to break

Today's calendar

No US data releases or Fed speakers today, Saturday September 26. Markets are closed, so the calendar is light. The real action starts next week.

Monday Sep 28: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10:30 AM ET

Tuesday Sep 29: Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS job openings at 10:00 AM ET; Fed speakers Goolsbee (1:00 PM ET), Musalem (1:30 PM ET), Williams (2:00 PM ET)

Wednesday Sep 30: ADP employment at 8:15 AM ET, PCE inflation at 8:30 AM ET (consensus 3.6% y/y, core 3.2%), GDP third reading at 8:30 AM ET

Thursday Oct 1: Jobless claims at 8:30 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing at 10:00 AM ET

Friday Oct 2: Nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 AM ET (consensus +83K), unemployment rate (4.1%), average hourly earnings

The read

Positioning and price are telling different stories right now. Speculators came into this week crowded long in gold, yet the metal still fell more than 2% as yields and the dollar did the damage. Friday's bounce recovered part of the loss but did not repair the chart: gold is still parked under the $4,300 line it lost on Thursday. The next move belongs to the data. Wednesday's PCE and Friday's payrolls will decide whether the rate pressure builds or eases, and with traders pricing a 70% chance of another hike in October, bulls need a soft number soon.

Not financial advice. Educational commentary only. You make your own trading decisions.